Advisory Service Track Record
Data Source
The information reported here is from proprietary compilations and
statistical analyses performed by the
at the University of Illinois. Attempting to compare these results with
data from a different source (or data from any dis-similar
sources, for that matter) is rife with opportunities for
mis-interpretation. Errors that could be either deliberate or accidental.
See the AgMAS Cautionary Note for
details.
AgResource believes that the AgMAS Project provides valuable comparative
performance data regarding the market advisors they track. Acutal results
will vary, unless your situation exactly matches the hypothetical
environment of the AgMAS model. The impact of any such deviations from the
assumptions in the AgMAS model, however, should be roughly
equivalent -- regardless of which advisor's strategy is being
followed.
It is worthy of note that AgMAS has no interest in making any particular
advisor "look good", and that their analysis methodology is
established in advance, and followed without deviation, without regard to
whether the results are favorable or unfavorable to any trading strategy.
AgResource is of the opinion that -- despite the theoretical flaws in
'hypothetical' analysis -- AgMAS is the "best available"
source of un-biased estimates of the comparative performance of the
major agricultural market advisory services.
Corn Marketing
| Crop Year
| Average Yield (Bu/Acre)
| Average Prices per Bu.
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. USDA
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. All Advisors
|
| USDA Average Price
| All AgMAS Advisors
| AgResource Marketing Results
|
| Net Cash Sales Price
| Futures and Options
| LDP/MLG
| Net Advisory Price
|
| 1995/96 |
113.5 |
$3.24 |
$3.04 |
$3.29 |
$0.55 |
$0.00 |
$3.84 |
$68.10 |
$90.80 |
| 1996/97 |
127.1 |
$2.71 |
$2.63 |
$2.84 |
$0.30 |
$0.00 |
$3.14 |
$54.65 |
$64.82 |
| 1997/98 |
126.7 |
$2.43 |
$2.32 |
$1.76 |
$0.34 |
$0.00 |
$2.10 |
($41.81) |
($27.87) |
| 1998/99 |
134.4 |
$1.94 |
$2.17 |
$1.70 |
$0.34 |
$0.27 |
$2.31 |
$49.73 |
$18.82 |
| 1999/00 |
133.8 |
$1.83 |
$2.02 |
$1.74 |
$0.52 |
$0.24 |
$2.50 |
$89.65 |
$64.22 |
| 2000/01 |
136.9 |
$1.85 |
$2.13 |
$1.78 |
$0.69 |
$0.37 |
$2.84 |
$135.53 |
$97.20 |
| 2001/02 |
138.2 |
$1.97 |
$1.99 |
$1.65 |
($0.17) |
$0.18 |
$1.66 |
($42.84) |
($45.61) |
| 2002/03 |
129.3 |
$2.32 |
$2.15 |
$2.23 |
$0.07 |
$0.00 |
$2.30 |
($2.59) |
$19.40 |
| 2003/04 |
142.2 |
$2.42 |
$2.24 |
$2.25 |
$0.52 |
$0.03 |
$2.80 |
$54.04 |
$79.63 |
| 2004/05 |
160.4 |
$2.06 |
$2.40 |
$1.94 |
$0.53 |
$0.33 |
$2.80 |
$118.70 |
$64.16 |
| Average |
134.3 |
$2.28 |
$2.31 |
$2.12 |
$0.37 |
$0.14 |
$2.63 |
$48.32 |
$42.56 |
Soybean Marketing
| Crop Year
| Average Yield (Bu/Acre)
| Average Prices per Bu.
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. USDA
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. All Advisors
|
| USDA Average Price
| All AgMAS Advisors
| AgResource Marketing Results
|
| Net Cash Sales Price
| Futures and Options
| LDP/MLG
| Net Advisory Price
|
| 1995/96 |
35.3 |
$6.72 |
$6.61 |
$6.92 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$6.92 |
$7.06 |
$10.94 |
| 1996/97 |
37.6 |
$7.35 |
$7.27 |
$7.29 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$7.29 |
($2.26) |
$0.75 |
| 1997/98 |
38.9 |
$6.47 |
$6.40 |
$5.83 |
$0.66 |
$0.00 |
$6.49 |
$0.78 |
$3.50 |
| 1998/99 |
38.9 |
$4.93 |
$5.82 |
$4.79 |
$0.98 |
$0.43 |
$6.20 |
$49.40 |
$14.78 |
| 1999/00 |
36.6 |
$4.63 |
$5.67 |
$5.01 |
$1.21 |
$0.93 |
$7.15 |
$92.23 |
$54.17 |
| 2000/01 |
38.1 |
$4.54 |
$5.45 |
$4.43 |
$1.62 |
$0.91 |
$6.96 |
$92.20 |
$57.53 |
| 2001/02 |
39.6 |
$4.38 |
$5.45 |
$4.09 |
$0.58 |
$1.14 |
$5.81 |
$56.63 |
$14.26 |
| 2002/03 |
38.0 |
$5.53 |
$5.24 |
$5.40 |
($0.24) |
$0.06 |
$5.22 |
($11.78) |
($0.76) |
| 2003/04 |
33.9 |
$7.34 |
$6.22 |
$7.06 |
($0.53) |
$0.00 |
$6.53 |
($27.46) |
$10.51 |
| 2004/05 |
42.2 |
$5.74 |
$6.13 |
$5.85 |
$1.66 |
$0.06 |
$7.57 |
$77.23 |
$60.77 |
| Average |
37.90 |
$5.76 |
$6.03 |
$5.67 |
$0.59 |
$0.35 |
$6.61 |
$33.40 |
$22.65 |
Gross Revenue Analysis
| Crop Year
| 50:50 split, Corn/Soybeans
|
| Revenue Per Acre
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. USDA
| AgResource Advantage per Acre vs. All Advisors
|
| USDA All Farms
| All AgMAS Advisors
| AgResource Marketing Results
|
| 1995/96 |
$320.48 |
$289.19 |
$340.06 |
$37.58 |
$50.87 |
| 1996/97 |
$310.40 |
$303.81 |
$336.60 |
$26.20 |
$32.79 |
| 1997/98 |
$279.78 |
$271.45 |
$259.27 |
($20.52) |
($12.19) |
| 1998/99 |
$226.26 |
$259.02 |
$275.82 |
$49.57 |
$16.80 |
| 1999/00 |
$207.16 |
$238.90 |
$298.10 |
$90.94 |
$59.20 |
| 2000/01 |
$213.12 |
$249.62 |
$326.99 |
$113.87 |
$77.37 |
| 2001/02 |
$222.85 |
$245.42 |
$229.74 |
$6.89 |
($15.68) |
| 2002/03 |
$255.06 |
$238.56 |
$247.88 |
($7.18) |
$9.32 |
| 2003/04 |
$296.48 |
$264.69 |
$309.76 |
$13.29 |
$45.07 |
| Average |
$257.06 |
$262.30 |
$291.58 |
$34.51 |
$29.28 |
| Crop Year
| Corn
| Soybeans
|
| Average Yield (Bu/Acre)
| Revenue per Acre
| Average Yield (Bu/Acre)
| Revenue per Acre
|
| USDA
| All AgMAS Advisors
| AgResource Marketing Results
| USDA
| All AgMAS Advisors
| AgResource Marketing Results
|
| 1995/96 |
113.5 |
$367.74 |
$345.04 |
$435.84 |
35.3 |
$237.22 |
$233.33 |
$244.28 |
| 1996/97 |
127.1 |
$344.44 |
$334.27 |
$399.09 |
37.6 |
$276.36 |
$273.35 |
$274.10 |
| 1997/98 |
126.7 |
$307.88 |
$293.94 |
$266.07 |
38.9 |
$251.68 |
$248.96 |
$252.46 |
| 1998/99 |
134.4 |
$260.74 |
$291.65 |
$310.46 |
38.9 |
$191.78 |
$226.40 |
$241.18 |
| 1999/00 |
133.8 |
$244.85 |
$270.28 |
$334.50 |
36.6 |
$169.46 |
$207.52 |
$261.69 |
| 2000/01 |
136.9 |
$253.27 |
$291.60 |
$388.80 |
38.1 |
$172.97 |
$207.65 |
$265.18 |
| 2001/02 |
138.2 |
$272.25 |
$275.02 |
$229.41 |
39.6 |
$173.45 |
$215.82 |
$230.08 |
| 2002/03 |
129.3 |
$299.98 |
$278.00 |
$297.39 |
38.0 |
$210.14 |
$199.12 |
$198.36 |
| 2003/04 |
142.2 |
$344.12 |
$318.53 |
$398.16 |
33.9 |
$248.83 |
$210.86 |
$221.37 |
| Average |
131.3 |
$299.47 |
$299.81 |
$339.97 |
37.4 |
$214.65 |
$224.78 |
$243.19 |
Note: Some of the numbers below are slightly different than shown in the
AgMAS reports. This is because AgMAS rounds some intermediate
results to the nearest whole dollar, while the numbers shown here
are 'to pennies'. even though "uncertainty" is circa
±$1.50/acre on corn, and circa ±$0.50/acre on Beans.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR
IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS ORLOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE
ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND
THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD
CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING
PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY
AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED
TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING
PROGRAM, WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE RESULTS.
|
