** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are down 3.75 cents at $9.715, July corn is down 2.5 cents at $3.7225 while July Chi wheat is down 4.00 cents at $4.50.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The CBOT started out mixed and turned lower in the AM hours as traders bet on improved planting weather for the W Midwest and N Plains, while rain continues to fall across the E Midwest for another 36 hours. Flooding remains an serious issue for producers in MO, C IL and IN. The amount of corn and soybeans that needs to be replanted is rapidly rising.
However, excluding the current E Midwest rainfall event, the forecast lacks any of the heavy rains that have been recently endured. This means that soils will slowly firm to support better spring planting and replanting in mid May. Note that there will be 2 additional storm systems indicated in the next 10 days, but the systems look to be more normal rainfall producers.
The overall US weather pattern is a weak high pressure Ridge through the Plains and a deep Trough in the E Midwest. Such a pattern will produce near to above normal temps thru the Plains and the western portion of the W Midwest, but below too much below temps will be maintained across the E Midwest/Delta.
The forecast maintains the risk of lower 30 degree temps into E IL, IN and OH on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday AM with the risk of a frost event for SRW wheat. US wheat crop ratings are likely to fall on Monday’s weekly NASS report to reflect the extreme weather of the past week. CBOT wheat markets have likely scored their seasonal lows with big questions on US wheat crop quality going forward for millers and importers?
The Plains Wheat Crop Quality Tour reported near to above average wheat yield potential in SW Kansas late Wednesday. However, participants remarked that it’s impossible to gauge the impact on sub-freezing temps on production as that will take more time. The Tour is expected to announce their final KS and other Plains States production estimates later today. The Tour has the same problem as NASS in that it’s impossible to gauge frost/freeze losses at this point. The market will see the May NASS estimate next week as a starting point and subtract yield/production as the crop matures.
In other world ag markets, China’s Dalian meal futures were slightly firmer overnight with the most active Sept contract closing at $414.90/MT while September DCE corn gained $.01 to close at $6.06. July Malaysian palmoil futures gained 14 ringgits to settle at $2,533 RM/MT, while Paris wheat is down $.75 euros/MT at $169.50.
Traders will be keeping a close eye out for the US Commerce Department to release its findings on whether Argentina and Indonesia are dumping biodiesel into the US market? A swift tariff/duty decision would end the imports and cause a huge jump in US domestic vegoil demand to meet the EPA mandate.
Cold/wet Central US weather has adversely impacted wheat/corn production, but the bushels that are lost is up for debate. We await rallies for sales.
