** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are unchanged at $9.6475, July corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.665 while July Chi wheat is up .25 of a cent at $4.3375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! It’s a day of pre report positioning with the May USDA Crop report out on Wednesday AM. CONAB’s Brazilian crop estimates will be released Thursday AM.
Overnight CBOT trade has occurred in modest volume with price little changed from Monday. Just over 8,500 contracts of July corn, just over 4,800 contracts of July Chi wheat and over 10,000 contracts of soybeans have changed hands.
Monday’s preliminary CBOT open interest data shows a gain of 26,295 contracts in corn, 2,961 contracts in soybeans, and 3,962 contracts in wheat. Funds added to their net short grain and soy position on Monday’s decline.
The NASS weekly crop report showed that 47% of the US corn crop has been planted vs 61% last year and a 5 year average of 52%. US spring wheat is 54% planted vs 74% last year and 60% on average, while 50% of the US winter wheat crop is headed vs 46% on average with GD/EX conditions down 1% to 53%. Sharp crop condition declines were noted in the W Plains where snow/cold battered the crop. The future trend looks for additional US wheat condition drops.
Clearly the US weather forecast is turning wetter in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods than what farmer’s desire. A blocking pattern over Greenland will keep a split jet stream active across the Central US into late May. Showers are noted this AM across; IL, IN and OH which is only add to the flooding woes with temperatures being more variable.
Normally, rain through the Plains is just what producer’s desire in May for HRW wheat production. However, this year the soils are already saturated and with disease pressure on the rise, sunshine/dry weather is now demanded to mend cold damaged wheat.
Unfortunately, the forecast is wet for the Plains with 3 storm systems noted over the next 14 days with heavy rainfall of 1-3.00” expected with the first system due from tonight into Thursday. The 2nd system looks rather tame with another potent storm in the 10-13 day period with fresh rains of .5-3.00”. The odds are dramatically rising for disease/fungal pressure on US winter wheat.
Midwest rain chances are almost anywhere today with the rains shifting southward into Friday. Next week looks wet and a potent system is offered in the 11-15 day period. Farmers will struggle planting or replanting in the flooded areas of; MO, IL, IN. Mud and yellow corn abound in the E Midwest.
In world ag markets, Malaysian palmoil futures rose 30 ringgits to close at 2,627 RM/MT, while China’s Dalian Sept corn futures lost 6 cents/Bu to close at $6.005 and Dalian Sept soymeal lost $3.25/MT to $408.25. Paris wheat futures are up $.75 euros/MT to $169.25 on a new round of hot/dry weather.
Producers in the west are rushing seed in the ground while producers in the east are stuck in the mud. The forecast calling for renewed heavy rains next week across the Plains, Delta & Midwest is unwanted. Wait for rallies to sell. Funds pile into new shorts on breaks only to get chased out with too much rain and growing crop concerns.
