Models Maintain Drier Trend in N Brazil; Coming Argentine Rain Important: The South American forecast is now very much mixed. A drying trend is likely in northern and eastern Brazil moving forward, while decent rainfall is offered to Central and Northern Argentina on the weekend. Both will be monitored closely as significant moisture deficits persist in Argentina (current topsoil moisture is at left; subsoil at right), and as climate guidance still hints that drying in N Brazil could be lasting. Conditions in Brazil currently are rather favorable, but longer term forecasts have for weeks featured a pattern change to drier and relatively warmer conditions.
In the near term, heavy (and needed) isolated showers will impact Cordoba & Santa Fe in Argentina Sat-Mon. Dryness returns thereafter, and while important coming rainfall won’t end drought in Argentina. Daily showers persist in Brazil over the next 3-4 days, but near complete dryness is forecast next week. The length of Brazilian dryness will be critical.
US Forecast Again Unchanged; Pattern Stagnant into Late January: The forecast so far has maintain lite precip in the E Plains, but otherwise a pattern of near complete dryness will persist west of the MS River. A deep low pressure Trough will stay anchored aloft Canada, and though it won’t drop as far south as in early Jan, this does look to keep meaningful rain/snow isolated to the east. This Trough will also allow for a rather variable temp pattern in the next two weeks.
Active showers will develop on the weekend in the far E Plains, Midwest and South. Very lite follow up precip is indicated in the Great Lakes Region early next week, and 7-day accumulation is attached. Yet two more events are scheduled for the Midwest & Delta/Southeast in the 8-15 day period, but no rain at all is forecast elsewhere. Again, temps will vary significantly moving forward, but there are hints of a rather warm profile developing Jan 18-22.