United States: Models continue to shift the ferocious West U.S. cold into the Great Plains the next 2+ weeks. Most intense chill is across the northwest Plains. Gut feeling is models are too cold and southern Plains/Texas susceptible to changeable conditions rather than persistent cold. Snow cover now extends to eastern Kansas across Missouri. Forecasts generally agree on farther south expansion. Expanding snow cover supports the cold forecast. Does snow cover develop over southwest Plains to northwest Texas? Probably not. Some analysis is needed on super wet soil moisture Central/East U.S. as to any indications of following warm season climate available soon.
Argentina/Brazil: A cool/dry pattern across Argentina follows a cold front. Front triggers wet weather in far northern Argentina to southeastern Brazil this week. Northern Minas Gerais/Bahia is hotter than normal this week. A broad wet pattern for eastern Brazil in the 6-10 day period while southeastern Brazil to Argentina is dry in the 6-10 day period. Hot in Minas Gerais and possibly central to northern Argentina days 6-10. The old pattern (wet ARG/dry BRZ) returns days 11-15. Note: Warm SSTA off central coast of both west and east South America is STRONG and correlates to subtropical ridging. Subtropical ridging supports dry and hot climate to end summer so biasing forecast drier than models is suggested.
Europe: The concern is river levels are below 12 mos. ago (which was followed by drought), a dry 15-day forecast and potential for another dry warm season ahead which would drive another drought possibly worse than 2018.
Russia/Black Sea: Surprising was the excessive precipitation in parts of the Black Sea region to Southwest Russia in January. 15-day forecasts indicate mostly dry conditions with limited snowfall. Below normal snow cover persists. However, a warmer than normal climate is forecast to fade colder days 8-14/11-15. No arctic air.
Australia: Bureau of Meteorology/Australia maintaining/intensify AU drought. Key to AU climate next several months is the very warm SSTA in-between AU and NZ. Across this warm water zone subtropical high pressure dominates causing attendant heat and dryness in most of AU (and NZ). West of AU waters are cool supporting presence of an upper trough as summer fades. So…the wet climate risk (if there is one) is Western Australia in MAR/APR. Currently, consensus of 15-day forecast models is dry entire continent.
ENSO: Neutral ENSO is present. Subsurface warmth is immense near Dateline and moving east. If subsurface warmth reaches eastern equatorial Pacific/northwest coast of South America El Nino risk returns. If so, we’re looking at later March/early April. Gut feeling? El Nino effort fails (again).
Month 1-3 ahead forecasts to be added: Currently, CIC does month 1-3 forecasts for the U.S. IT has added this product for EU, AU, SA and RU. We’ll initiate these products ASAP.
