** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are unchanged at $9.74, July corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.67 while July Chi wheat is up 1.75 cents at $4.3125.
AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed and low volume has been the overnight CBOT grain. Activity has been slowed by the USDA May Crop Report that will be released at 11 AM CDT this AM.
Just over 6,000 contracts of July corn, 7,000 contracts of July soybeans and 4,500 contracts of July Chi wheat have changed hands overnight. CBOT open interest reflected modest changes from Tuesday with corn up 6,060 contracts, soybeans up 1,591 contracts and Chi wheat down 594 contracts.
A back and forth morning is expected before the USDA May report is released. Note that Brazil’s CONAB will release their monthly crop production estimates on Thursday. A slight rise in the Brazilian soybean crop to 111-112 MMTs is expected with virtually no change in their corn crop until weather can be better assessed. Pollination is underway and the forecast is generally arid this week with some rains indicated for next week.
China’s Dalian September corn futures closed down 1 cent at $6.00/Bu with September soymeal up $2.00/MT at $410.30/MT. The volume of trade in Dalian has been routine as speculative interests have slowed their trading of futures.
Malaysian palmoil futures were closed for a holiday while Paris wheat futures are up .25 euro’s/MT at $169.50 basis September futures.
The Central US weather forecast remains wet with 3 storm systems slated for the Plains, Delta and Midwest over the next 10-12 days. The systems will favor the S and W Midwest with heavier rain totals. With April being the 2nd wettest in since 1895 for MO, any additional rainfall is unwanted during May.
The Midwest/Plains have rain chances just about anywhere in the next 36 hours with some locally heavy rains across Kansas, Nebraska and through Missouri. The rain ends across the Midwest on Friday with new rains to fall early next week. A wet 11-15 day period is offered by all models. In the next 10 day, combined Plains and Midwest rainfall totals look to range from 1.5-4.00” with some locally heavier amounts. The rains across; MO, IL and IN will limit seeding or reseeding progress in the next 10 days.
The only good weather news is that a more seasonal temperature profile will be offered with variability noted around passing short wave weather features.
Chinese farmers are expected to seed 88.5 Mil acres of corn (about the same as US farmers) which is down 2.5% from last year due to lower profitability as China changed in minimal price paid to producers. The free floating farm program will lower Chinese corn acres, but not enough for the Gov’t to get rid of their massive corn stocks estimated at over 200 MMTs.
AgResource maintains that the CBOT will trade is a broad trading range until more is known about how excessive rainfall will impact US seeding/production.
US winter wheat will likely endure an increase in fungal disease pressure as temps warm amid saturated soils and NASS was not be able to define freeze/snow damage for HRW wheat in today’s report. We await rallies to make new sales.
