Summary: For the period Dec 22-Dec 27, the ship lineup shows that Brazil exported 678,000 MT corn. That is up 52,000 MT from the previous week and 140,000 MT more than what was shipped a year ago. For comparison, US export inspections were 914,000 MT. Brazil’s ship lineup shows that 4.18 MMT are estimated to have been shipped in Dec. It is likely that SESEX will release “official” trade data for Dec later today (or tomorrow). Brazil’s cumulative export “commitments” are 22.83 MMT, 24.3% below a year ago. This is the 3rd smallest figure (for this date) in 6 years. Brazil’s corn exports are definitely “catching a second wind” late in the season. In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for Brazil’s local marketing year (Mar-Feb) exports by 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT. That’s down 25.6% from last year. Based on the seasonal, the pace of export commitments is sufficient to exceed the USDA’s projection by almost 1.0 MMT.
Brazil’s cumulative corn export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 23.61 MMT. That is up 836,000 MT from the previous week but it is 24.3% less than a year ago (see chart below).
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 3.34 MMT (see chart below), down from last week’s 4.02 MMT but above last year’s 2.19 MMT.
The chart below shows that corn export commitments are slightly ahead of the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection of 23.5 MMT. The unusual delays in Brazil’s corn exports early this year were probably due to the imposition of higher truck freight rates which disrupted logistics and slowed farmer sales. The sharp fluctuations in the Real may also have influenced the timing of farmers’ sales.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. November’s SECEX exports were 3.996 MMT vs shipments of 3.865 MMT. For the period Mar-Nov, cumulative SECEX exports are 15.539 MMT vs shipments of 16.182 MMT. Last year, cumulative SECEX exports as of the end of November were 27.325 MMT (vs final annual exports of 31.6 MMT). For December, the lineup indicates that shipments were 4.18 MMT. It is likely that SESEX will release “official” trade data for Dec later today (or tomorrow). Late in the season, SESEX’s exports are often larger than the shipments reported by cargo services.
As of Jan 01, ship waiting times at the three public sheds at Paranagua was estimated to be 7 days (see red line read off right axis in the chart below). That’s unchanged from a week ago but below last year’s 8-day waiting time (see black line).