Brazilian trade data released last week showed soybean exports for November at just over 2 MMTs, which was inline with expectations. Cumulative exports for the year are now near 65 MMTs, a record large export pace and 28% more than a year ago. The USDA in November, held their estimate for the Feb-Jan crop marketing year at 65.6 MMTs, which leaves less than 1 MMTs of soybeans to export in the last 2 months, to reach the USDA’s forecast. However, the latest vessel lineup data is already shows 1.6 MMTs scheduled for December, and that figure is likely to increase by month’s end. The USDA is expected to raise their estimate for old crop Brazilian soybean exports, and without an increase in world demand, will come at the expense of US export forecast.
November soymeal exports were down slightly from October and totaled just over 1 MMTs, but still above last year as soybean crush rates have remained higher. The latest data from the Brazilian crushing industry association (ABIOVE), has data through September, but shows that soybean crush rates remained well above both last year and the 5 year average through the month. Cumulative soybean processing for the year is estimated at 29 MMTs, up 3% from last year, but also the largest on record. To date, processors are estimated to have purchased 33 MMTs of soybeans, while stocks on hand at the end of September were the lowest since 2004, at 5.8 MMTs. But with total Brazilian supplies still above last year, strong monthly crush figures are expected to continue.
Corn exports in November were disappointing and fell short of expectations. Private trade data showed exports near 4 MMTs, while the government data showed a monthly total of 3.2 MMTs. Total exports in the USDA’s Mar-Feb crop marketing year now total 23 MMTs, versus the USDA’s annual forecast of 36 MMTs. To reach the USDA’s annual forecast, Dec-Feb exports need to total 13 MMTs. A year ago, Brazil exported just 3 MMTs in that period following a drought reduced crop. However, exports routinely reached 10-14 MMTs from 2012-2015. Just 4 days into December, the vessel lineup is already showing more than 2 MMTs scheduled for the month, and December exports are expected to total 4-5 MMTs. Brazil is not offering corn for export beyond February.
