Brazil’s Corn Exports Expected to Be 1+ MMT Larger Than USDA’s Projection of 23.5 MMT.

Jan 15, 8:07 am | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   For the period Jan 05-Jan 11, the ship lineup shows that Brazil exported 664,000 MT corn.  That is down 479,000 from the previous week and 104,000 MT less than what was shipped a year ago.  For comparison, US export inspections were 1,014,000 MT.  Argentine corn exports last week were 327,000 MT.  Brazil’s ship lineup shows that 3.14 MMT are expected to be shipped in Jan.  SESEX’s official cumulative Mar-Dec corn exports are 19.77 MMT vs shipments of 20.21 MMT.  Brazil’s cumulative export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels waiting, and vessels to arrive) are 24.35 MMT, 22.8% below a year ago.  This is the 3rd  smallest figure (for this date) in 6 years.  In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for Brazil’s local marketing year (Mar-Feb) exports by 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT.  That’s down 25.6% from last year. Based on the seasonal, the pace of export commitments is sufficient to exceed the USDA’s projection by 1.0+ MMT.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brazil’s cumulative corn export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 24.35 MMT.  That is up 656,000 MT from the previous week but it is 22.8% less than a year ago (see chart below).

 

 

This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 2.99 MMT (see chart below), down fractionally from last week’s 3.00 MMT but above last year’s 1.26 MMT.

 

 

The chart below shows that corn export commitments are ahead of the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection of 23.5 MMT.  The unusual delays in Brazil’s corn exports early this year were probably due to the imposition of higher truck freight rates which disrupted logistics and slowed farmer sales.  The sharp fluctuations in the Real may also have influenced the timing of farmers’ sales.

 

 

The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb).  The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data.  The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports.  The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports.  December’s SECEX exports were 4.231 MMT vs shipments of 4.058 MMT. For the period Mar-Dec, cumulative SECEX exports are 19.766 MMT vs shipments of 20.205 MMT.  Last year, cumulative SECEX exports as of the end of December were 27.325 MMT (vs final annual exports of 31.6 MMT).  For January, the lineup indicates that shipments will be 3.14 MMT. Late in the season, SESEX’s exports are often larger than the shipments reported by cargo services.

 

 

As of Jan 14, ship waiting times at the three public sheds at Paranagua was estimated to be 3 days (see red line read off right axis in the chart below).  That’s down 3 days from a week ago and below last year’s 6-day waiting time (see black line).