** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: March soybeans are up .50 of a cent at $9.505, March corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.4925, and March Chi wheat is up .50 of a cent at $4.3375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Low volume and slightly higher are the CBOT markets overnight. CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures are slightly higher as traders await the all important USDA January Crop report which will be released at 11:00 AM CST. The report along with S American weather should be the major drivers of price heading into spring.
Thursday’s CBOT open interest totals reflected a 13,671 contract gain in corn, a 12,514 gain in soybeans, and a 1,047 contract gain in wheat. The CoT report to be released this afternoon is expected to show that managed money sold another 15-20,000 contracts of corn and soybeans, while reducing their net Chi wheat position by 8-12,000 contracts. Funds are now short over 100,000 contracts of soybean futures.
January deliveries were 47 contracts of soymeal, 46 contracts of soyoil and 63 contracts of soybeans. Today is the last trading day for Jan soy futures.
The US dollar is lower again this AM with crude oil slightly lower. The EU Central Bank hinted that it could end QE in September with its first rate hike in nearly a decade in the 4th quarter. Economic growth is accelerating in the EU which is likely to cause the US Dow to open 100 points higher this AM at a new historic high. The US dollar is trading weaker against the ag currencies at 3.22:1 vs the Brazilian real, 18.70:1 vs the Argentine peso, 56.5:1 vs the ruble and 6.46:1 vs the Chinese yuan.
A global accounting firm EY suggested that the entire economic gain related to US tax reform could be wiped out if the Trump Administration continues to push for a regionalization on trade. NAFTA remains critically important to US farmers and ag business with new negotiations slated for late January.
China imported a record large 9.55 MMTs of soybeans in December, up 10% from November, and up 6% from last year. In calendar year 2017, China took 95.5 MMTs of soybeans, a record which was up 14% from 2016. In yuan terms, US soybeans into China are at 2 year lows.
Malaysian palmoil futures closed 22 ringgits lower at 2,545 RM/MT in the March contract. Paris wheat is down .25 euros at $158.75/MT while Dalian corn and soymeal futures closed slightly lower.
Drier than normal weather will persist across the northern half of Brazil for at least the next 2 weeks. Soil moisture is being rapidly lost which will have to be replaced before the planting of their winter corn crop. Temps will be increasing to near to above normal levels with highs in the 90’s.
Some isolated rains fell across S Argentina overnight with additional activity expected on the weekend with rainfall totals estimated in a range of .5-2.00”. A second frontal pass is expected during the middle of next week.
Good luck with the USDA report that will define 2017 summer row crop yields.
** January 1-26 % of Normal Rainfall:
