** AgResource Pre-Opening Sunday Calls: Soybeans 1 cent higher to 2 cents lower, corn steady to 1 cent higher with wheat called 1 lower to 1 cent higher
** Weekend Weather & CBOT Market Discussion: Opening week CBOT calls are mixed amid a lack of fresh news and South American weather forecasts that are little changed from Friday. A narrowly mixed CBOT opening is expected with the bears pressuring soybeans amid US/world balance sheets that reflect large stocks.
China will be sending its Vice Premier to the US during the closing days of January. The big question is whether China will secure additional US ag goods ahead of this meeting?
Rumors abound on the timing and amounts of ag products that China might secure – including grains. In past weeks, China has been a soybean buyer on Wednesday and the trade will be watching if this same pattern is followed?
There is no fresh news on when the US Govt will reopen as the fight as the US/Mexico border wall continues. The US dollar is likely to weaken farther this week.
Including the wetter GFS forecast, the graphic shows the S American rain deviations from normal thru Jan 27th. Note the acute dryness over the NE crop production belt.
**Jan 1-27 % of Normal Rainfall For South American**
** South American Weekend Weather: There was rain across some of the drier areas of Brazil on the weekend with totals ranging from .1-1.50” with the coverage of rain over 1.00” estimated to be 20%. High temps ranged from the 80’s to lower 90’s.
Moderate to heavy rain also fell across Argentina with rains of .2-2.25” with the heavy rainfall totals dropping across Santa Fe and Entre Rios – the same saturated area. Rains were lite across the Buenos Aires and Cordoba with totals under .50”. High temps ranged from the 70’s to the upper 80’s.
The forecast keeps the same overall pattern intact with a Ridge of High Ridge of high pressure over NC Brazil and a deep low-pressure vortex over N Argentina. The 10-day EU model rainfall forecast is attached. Notice that little rain will drop across NE Brazil while Northern and Central areas see 10-50% of normal. Crop losses are likely to worsen with ARC forecasting a decline to 111-113 MMTS of soybean production if this same pattern lasts into February 1st.
** No Change in South American Weather Pattern Next 2 Weeks:
** Big Change in US Weather Pattern to Snow/Cold:
** AgResource Market Comment: With South American crops in decline, it will be difficult to sustain any kind of CBOT break. Traders will see any correction as a buying opportunity with China likely to secure additional US ag goods before the arrival of Vice Premier Liu.