CBOT Called MIxed to Slightly Lower on Charts/CoT

Mar 11, 9:19 am | Sunday Commentary | Share this:

** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1-3 cents lower, corn 1-2 cents lower, with wheat called 1 cent higher to 2 cents lower.  

 ** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are mixed to mostly lower on carry through chart based selling as funds are holding a record long position in the soy complex and some meaningful rains are slated to drop across E Argentina after March 16th. The rains are positioned slightly farther north than what was indicated on Friday, and will cover reduced amounts of W and S Argentina. However, the rains are still a week away and the models are trying to sort of the exact details of amounts and location.  Based on the weather trends so far, this growing season, we fear that the Argy rains will under-perform. RGDS is S Brazil will be favored.   

**Mar 1-23% of normal Rainfall;


  Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money is; short 32,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 29,000), long 163,000 corn (up 104,000), long 184,000 soybeans (up 37,000), short 9,000 soyoil (flat), and long 115,000 contracts of meal (up 9,000). Funds were much longer than expected in soymeal, corn, and soybeans. The long KC wheat position of 21,000 contracts offsets the Chi short.

** US Plains Weather Pattern Discussion: Dryness is expected across the Western US Plains with mild temps for the next 10-12 days. There is a chance of a few showers over the eastern third of KS, OK and NE. High temps will range from the 50’s to the 70’s. Wheat has started the greening process and is in dire need of moisture over the next few weeks.    

** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in good agreement that a continued warm/dry weather pattern will persist across Argentina/S Brazil this week. The weekend was dry and crop stress continued unabated. High temps ranged from the mid 80’s to the mid 90’s.

  The forecast models argue that rains will start to fall in the March 16th forward timeframe as several strong cold fronts pull northward. The rains will start across Buenos Aires and shift slowly north producing .25-1.50”.

 However, as the attached map depicts, the best chance of rain will be across S Argentina and far S Brazil (RGDS) next week. This positioning is farther north than what was indicated on Friday. Some areas of C and W Argentina will be short changed, but there are additional showers indicated during the 11-15 day period. Near normal rain is forecast for Brazil with seasonal temperatures.  crush