** 6:30 AM CBOT Futures: Mar soybeans are up 4.00 cents at $9.09, Mar corn is up 1.50 cents at $3.745 and Mar Chi wheat is down 1.00 cent at $5.1725.
** AgResource Morning CBOT Comment/Analysis: Good Morning! Mostly higher with moderate volume has been the overnight trade. A day of political posturing in the CBOT grains is expected with all eyes on US/China trade progress.
US lawmakers have reached a tentative deal to avoid a second Gov’t shutdown that included $1.37 Bil to erect new fencing along the southern US border. The monies would be for the construction of 55 miles of additional barriers that have been used/approved before. There is no word as to whether President Trump will accept the new Congressional budget offer? The US awaits his decision.
USTR Ambassador Lighthizer arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Thursday/Friday. Optimism remains that US/China trade progress can deepen with late week negotiations key to this round’s success.
The best way to measure US/China trade progress (and a likely deal) is watching if a new round of discussions/meetings will be held that would keep the momentum going to reach a final deal during March? All sides are mum as to progress with today’s talks just finishing.
The US EPA is considering releasing a draft proposal that expand the sales of higher ethanol blends of US gasoline without a curb on biofuel credit speculation. The curb was promised to the US oil industry for their support in selling E15 year-round. The EPA hopes to release a working draft on E15 by the end of the month and to finish it by June when the new summer driving season begins. ARC estimates that selling E15 year-round could boost US corn demand by some 200-300 Mil Bu this year.
Algeria launched a new wheat tender for 50,000 MTs, but often takes 400-500,000 MTs in the final decision. The deadline is February 14th with bids to stay open for 24 hours. The shipping period is for LH March and early April.
The South American weather forecast is like prior solutions with near to above normal rains to fall across Brazil while sunny/mild weather conditions persist across Argentina. The extended forecast offers better rains back into Argentina, but the forecast is of low confidence and needs to be monitored.
Arctic cold will be sliding south and east into the Central US in the 6-12 day period that poses a winterkill risk to KS/NE winter wheat with minimum temps to slide below 0 degrees. The cold will be some 20-25 degrees below normal and cause elevated worry for poorly established Plains HRW wheat.
CONAB estimated their Brazilian 2019 soybean crop at 115.3 MMTs with corn at 91.2 MMTs. The soybean crop decline is in line with industry expectations, but still down 3.5 MMTs from the January forecast.
ARC looks to late week US/China trade progress reports to direct the CBOT going forward.
** Winterkill Risk for HRW Wheat Early Next Week:
** Limited Snow Cover for KS and and the S Plains into Feb 22nd:
** More Flooding Rains for the S Midwest/Delta Next 10 Days:
