** CBOT 6:30 AM CST Prices; March soybeans are down 3.25 cents at $9.635, March corn is up .75 of a cent at $3.48, and March Chi wheat is down 1.00 cent at $4.2675.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Low volume and mixed is the overnight trade as the CBOT awaits the USDA January Crop Report on Friday. Just over 6,000 contracts of March corn, just over 8,500 contracts of March soybeans, and 5,000 contracts of March Chi wheat have changed hands.
The corn overnight market is being supported by the big jump in Monday’s open interest in a down day. Monday’s corn OI shot up 42,724 contracts as funds added to their already big net short CBOT corn position. Soybean open interest gained 13,992 contracts with wheat up 2,033 contracts. Some of the OI gain is also related to the index fund rebalance and their desire to hold additional length in CBOT ag commodities.
January CBOT deliveries were; 170 contracts of soymeal, 214 contracts of soyoil, and 21 contracts of soybeans.
The US dollar is slightly stronger with crude oil up $.23 at $61.95/barrel. The world energy market shows no sign of correcting overbought levels.
World ag currencies have the Russian ruble gaining to 56.8:1 USD, while the Argentine Peso is priced at 19.04:1 and the Brazilian real at 3.24:1.
President Trump reassured the Nashville Farm Bureau meeting on trade, the Farm Bill and immigration. Trump indicated that he is trying to get US farmers a much better deal on NAFTA and suggested that the talks will come out very well. President Trump signed an executive order on rural broadband at the meeting. The US farm crowd was receptive to President Trump’s
Egypt’s GASC is seeking February shipment wheat and received no offers. GASC is reworking terms on demurrage costs which is rankling suppliers.
In other world ag markets, Malaysian palmoil futures closed 20 ringgits lower at 2,605 RM/MT. Key monthly crop data will be out on Wednesday. March Paris wheat futures are unchanged at $161.0, while Dalian corn/meal futures closed mixed. Sinograin is using China’s domestic rally to sell corn stocks.
A variable temperature pattern and improved moisture chances are offered for the Central US over the next 10 days. The best chance for Plains moisture will be mid next week as a front stalls across KS/NE and IA. No additional winterkill cold weather threats are noted for US winter wheat.
Most private analysts are pegging the Brazilian 2018 soybean harvest at 110-111 MMTs and the Argentine soy crop at 52-53 MMTs. The Brazilian crop would be up 2-3 MMTs with the Argentine crop down a like amount. The net result is that the ‘18 S American total soy crop will be under last year’s record which will spur improved US soybean and product exports during summer.
The EU model calls for less rain across Argentina with a noted drying trend underway across NE and N Brazil. The dryness for Argentina is more immediate.
The structure of the CBOT is too bearish amid concerning S American weather. This is no place to chase a CBOT decline.
