** 6:30 AM CBOT Futures: Mar soybeans are up 4.00 cents at $9.075, Mar corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.7575 and Mar Chi wheat is unchanged at $5.07.
** AgResource Morning CBOT Comment/Analysis: Good Morning! Mostly higher in the summer row crops and mixed in wheat has been the overnight CBOT trade.
There has been heavy volume trade in corn with over 32,000 contracts changing hands in March futures. The US wheat market is easier on technical selling tied to Thursday’s weak close and further weakness in Paris wheat futures with their May futures contract down 2.00 euros/MT at $197.50.
The USTR Trade delegation is heading back to Washington after fresh progress was scored in trade talks in Beijing this week. Ambassador Lighthizer and Sec Treasury Mnuchin met with China’s President Xi late Friday. The good news is that the trade talks will continue in Washington next in a sign that both sides want to reach a deal sooner than later.
The US wants to get negotiation framework far enough along such that President Trump can meet with Chinese President Xi in March to flesh out the remaining hard-fought structural points. In the end, the US will push on all fronts but, its up to President Trump to decide in a trade deal with China benefits the US more than the continuation of tariffs? The US nor Chinese will get everything they want in a trade deal, but US President Trump will not want to carry this trade issue forward into the ‘20 US Presidential election cycle.
The US Gov’t is closed for the President Day holiday on Monday, but it’s expected that US/China trade negotiations will resume Tuesday and continue into Friday. Amid the long weekend and China’s trade team returning to the US, the risk is to the upside in the markets as positive President Trump comments.
Russian fob wheat offers slid another $.50/MT on Friday with offers at $242.50/MT. The weakness in Russian fob wheat price is said to be from several longs looking for new demand amid a slumping ruble. Interior Russian wheat prices have not fallen nearly as much and replacement for the export sellers will find them losing around $10-11/MT on higher interior cash bids. This leads ARC to believe that the Russian fob wheat decline is temporary.
A newswire is reporting that a drought and army worms could force India to grant duty free corn imports. Total Indian corn imports are estimated in a range of 500,000-1.5 MMTs in coming quarters.
The South American weather forecast is generally favorable with the overnight models calling for better rains across Argentina in the 8-10 day period. Otherwise, Brazil will see normal rainfall and temperatures into March
US/China trade optimism with the potential of doubling ’17 US ag demand should underpin CBOT values with new US/China talks planned next week.
** There is no change in the North American Weather Pattern For The next 3 Weeks; Flooding to Worsen in the Delta/SE US:
