Today’s Highlight: Increased rain and snow for the U.S.
United States: The prevailing thermal pattern for February becomes colder-than-normal temperatures over the northern Rockies to North-Central U.S. while the South and East U.S. are warmer-than-normal. In-between the storm track generates 3-6 in. of rain Mid-South to Midwest U.S. (Fig. 1) with snows across the Upper Midwest to Quebec. Beneficial moisture to the parched East-Central/Mid-South U.S. (Fig. 2) a trend already started in parts of the Mid-South (Fig. 3).
Fig. 1: ECM ENS 15-day rainfall amount forecast for the U.S.
Fig. 2-3: Soil moisture anomalies across the U.S. and the soil moisture change for February (so far).
Europe/Western Russia: Fluctuating temperatures across Europe/Western Russia the next 10 days. Models vary widely with time, some turning quite warm in the medium-range while others are colder particularly Western Russia where persistent snows continue to pile. Snowfall events are frequent the next 10 days including moderate snows the next 1-2 days in-between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea while South-Central/Southeast Europe snows arrive for early-to-middle week (Fig. 4). Widespread persistent snows continue to affect Northern Europe to much of Western Russia.
Fig. 4: The 10-day snowfall amount forecast by the ECMWF model across Europe and Western Russia.
Argentina: A dry scenario is indicated in the day 1-7 period (Fig. 5) and just limited beneficial rain in the 8-14 day period (Fig. 6). A pulse of anomalous heat is likely for central Argentina based on the GFS forecast days 6-10 while much of the wheat/soybean regions of ARG avoid anomalous heat.
Fig. 5-6: The GFS day 1-7 and day 8-14 percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates persistent dryness across Argentina.
Australia: A 2-week period of strong to extreme heat is expected across central and northeast portions of Australia based on the GFS forecast (Fig. 7). The rainfall outlook also indicates dryness for north-central to northeast portions of the continent (Fig. 8). Southeast Australia is temperate and showery. Heavier rain is likely on the West Coast.
Fig. 7-8: The 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast by the GFS for Australia. Â