Canada: ALERT for needed rainfall.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Potentially unusually cool Alberta to Manitoba. Cooler trend! Wet! 0.75 to 1.75 in. of rain.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Temperatures moderate toward normal. Likely to continue showery, above normal rainfall.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): Trying to turn warmer/drier according to ECMWF “Weeklies”. NCEP CFS V2 maintain weak trough, showery and temperate. So low confidence forecast.
United States: Midwest rains, cooler.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Trend is cooler in Canada while West/Central U.S. are warm. Hot in southern Plains/Midwest to Texas. Thundery Dakotas to Iowa and Minnesota. Dry central/south Great Plains.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Notably cooler Corn Belt. Heat in southwest Great Plains. Texas is less hot. Could be wet Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Patchy thunderstorm areas remainder of Great Plains, most areas dry.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): ECMWF “Weeklies” show (trough) weakness Ohio Valley with ridge pattern gravitating toward Northwest U.S. Implications of a developing Southwest U.S. wet monsoon. ECMWF idea OK except Southwest to Texas are hotter. NCEP CFS V2 build the ridge in the Southeast which is less likely due to wetter soils in that region. Shaky confidence!
Ukraine/Western Russia/Black Sea Region: Western Russia chill/showers.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Marginally cool Ukraine, quite cool Western Russia. Trend is cooler Ukraine. Wet into southwest Russia. Ukraine/Black Sea mostly drier than normal.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Western Russia is chilly. Cool regime dips south touching Ukraine. Ukraine is dry, southwest Russia is borderline wet. Points east are very wet.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): Prefer the ECMWF “Weeklies”. Western Russia trough erodes. Warm/dry ridge builds last week of June. NCEP CFS V2 too volatile.
Europe: Central, east and north Europe dryness.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Wet upper trough Western Europe; very warm Central Europe. Dry east and north portions of Europe.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Southern tier of Europe from Spain/France to Greece wetter than normal. Warm to very warm and dry north of the wet belt.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): Expanding warm/dry ridge pattern.
Australia: Wet forecast by models a little less aggressive.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Warm in the East; cool West Coast. Streak of rain across Western Australia into south-central Australia. Southwest and Southeast Australia crop areas miss most of this rain. Queensland is dry.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Marginally warm East; near normal elsewhere. Central Australia wet pattern. Trend is less impressively wet as indicated yesterday. Southwest and southeast Australia crop areas miss the rain.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): The wet weather potential in the medium-range fades. ECMWF MJO P6 to P8 forecast supports Australia turning drier again.
South America: Argentina chill; heavy rains days 11-15 west/south Brazil.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Unusually cool across Argentina; 8-16F below normal. Brazil is dry/warm. Showers southwest/southeast Brazil.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Still chilly in Argentina. Trending wetter for an already wet forecast west, southwest and southeast Brazil.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): MJO P6 to P8 forecast by ECMWF indicates increased wet influence on both Argentina and Brazil.
China: Northern wheat areas still dry.
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Temperate and dry across northern China wheat areas.
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Slight warming trend. Northern China slightly showery but still averaging drier than normal.
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): Late June goes hot/dry based on MJO P8 development according to ECMWF.
India: Favoring wet!
Days 6-10 (June 4-8): Northwest India is dry and hot otherwise south and east portions of India are wet!
Days 11-15 (June 9-13): Temperate and wet!
Week 3-4 (June 17-23/24-30): Trending hotter and drier. Forecast (using ECMWF) based on MJO P6 to P8 shift.