Spotty showers will occur on the weekend in Central Argentina, but widespread soaking rain – which is now required – is not indicated. It’s almost too late for a pattern change to materially impact corn yield following cumulative Oct-Jan precip of just 65% of normal. Dry weather returns to Argentina in the 4-12 day period, and should this arid forecast verify, drought will be confirmed. The attached graphic reflects that without a very quick and major pattern change, it’s likely that final corn yield in Argentina exists some 20-25% below trend. This implies a crop of just 31-34 MMTs, and corn exports of no more than 21-23 MMTs, vs. 26 MMTs last year.
There’s evidence to suggest La Nina will weaken, and fade by late spring, but in the meantime, there is no change in the overall South American weather pattern.
CBOT spot corn futures will uncover strong support under $3.60 amid the smaller Argentine corn crop. The loss of 8-11 MMTs of Argentine corn makes the size of the Brazilian winter corn crop more important!
