Corn struggled to find direction amid competing inputs. Another round of US/Chinese talks lie ahead next week. The market doesn’t want to be caught short should a US/China ag package be announced. The US suggests that China and US will be signing MOUs on the points that there is agreement. This is a likely lead up to a March Trade Summit between Trump/Xi. Unknown is whether these MOUs to be signed will become public and include specific dollar amounts?
Funds as of Jan 22 were long a net 44,000 contracts of corn. Funds this evening are estimated to be short a net 3,000 contracts. Farmer sales will be lacking at current prices. $3.70 support should hold into the start of planting.
Brazilian soil moisture will be replenished amid recent and coming rains.
Model guidance includes normal/above normal rainfall in key areas through the early part of March. Early safrinha GD/EX ratings will be much better than the previous year.
The trade is optimistic on an eventual US-Chinese trade deal, particularly with another high-level meeting scheduled in DC next week. If China pledges to secure large amounts of US ag goods annually, that will be a big deal for grain and meats.
