Concern of redeveloping Europe/Western Russia Drought in 2019
Fig. 1: The Rhine River level at Kaub, Germany is much lower than early 2018.
Discussion: There is concern that a dry climate may regenerate in 2019. The Rhine River level at Kaub, Germany has certainly recovered from the record low levels of last summer/autumn but remains well below levels observed in early 2018 (Fig. 1). The snow cover analysis indicates below normal amount especially in Southeast Europe and the Black Sea region as mild temperatures have melted the snow (Fig. 2). The analog years which include similar ENSO regimes from this century indicate an upper ridge may emerge over West-central Europe during meteorological spring (Fig. 3) leading to a dry springtime for this region. The same analogs indicate the core of the upper ridge shifts to Southwest Russia for meteorological summer (Fig. 4).
Summary: There is concern that an upper air pattern producing a dry climate over Europe during spring and spreading that dryness to Southwest Russia during summer could ignite another widespread dry-to-drought climate for Europe into the Ukraine area and Southwest Russia in 2019. The drought could be worse than 2018.
Fig. 2: Eurasia snow cover analysis identifies bare ground in the Black Sea region and Southeast Europe.
Fig. 3: CIC analog years and the 500 MB anomaly projection for MAR/APR/MAY 2019.
Fig. 4: CIC analog years and the 500 MB anomaly projection for JUN/JUL/AUG 2019.