Soil Moisture Improvement Continues in Brazil; Argentina Trending Drier: The South American forecast is little changed from prior runs. Widespread rainfall impacts the whole of Brazil’s crop belt through the weekend. Daily shower activity will persist indefinitely across Mato Grosso, Goias and Goias, or some 50% of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt. High pressure Ridging in Brazil will stay absent into late month.
Argentine conditions remain favorable, but we will be monitoring the potential for lasting dryness in Argentina in Feb and early March. Monthly precip in Buenos Aires is at left. Accumulation in Feb is forecast near last year and some 50% of normal. Argentina’s later planted corn crop will be pollinating over the next several weeks. Dec (early planted) and Feb (later planted) are key months in determining final corn yield. Crop conditions will remain elevated in the near term, but rain will be desired in the next 2-3 weeks.
US Pattern Remains Stuck; No Sign of Lasting Warmth Next Several Weeks: The EU and GFS remain in good agreement on a wet/cold Central US pattern through the balance of February. Another 10-12 days of excessive snowfall will continue across the PNW. Widespread snow worth 2-5” is forecast across most of the Plains and Midwest this weekend. And the GFS features the return of the Polar Vortex Feb 25-28, when sub-zero lows will be common across the Dakotas, MN, IA and WI. Freezing lows will drop into AR, TN and KY.
The most immediate concern is the lack of warmth and dryness across the far South. 7-day precip is at left. Yet more heavy precip is offered to the Delta/Southeast in the 8-15 day period. 16-30 day guidance maintains a pattern of well below normal temps into the first half of March. It’s early, but this cool/wet pattern is unlikely to change in the next 30 days.