Informa’s (IEG Vantage) Planting Projections for Corn & Soybeans are 1.8 Mil Ac Above USDA’s “Baseline” Projection

Jan 23, 1:17 pm | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Bottom Line:  IEG Vantage’s  (aka Informa) January projection for corn seedings has no bias to either over-or-under-estimates (relative to USDA’s Prospective Plantings).  The median error in years when Informa’s estimate was too low was 3.3%. The median error in years that Informa’s estimate was too high was 1.5%.  Based on Informa’s estimate of 91.504 Mil Ac, that would equate to a range of  90.1 to 94.6 Mil Ac.  USDA’s Baseline corn acreage projection was 92.0 Mil Ac.

On the other hand, Informa’s soybean seedings estimate tends to be too high.  The median error in years when Informa’s estimate was too high was 3.0%.  Based on Informa’s estimate of 86.204 Mil Ac that would equate to about 2.546 Mil Ac less – – or 83.658 Mil Ac.  USDA’s Baseline soybean projection was 82.5 Mil Ac. At this time, AgResource expects Prospective Plantings to report corn seedings of 93.0 Mil Ac and soybean seedings of 83.5 Mil Ac.

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Today Informa released revised estimates for 2019 crop seedings.  Base on history gleaned from news reports that were compiled over time (and which are believed to be accurate), it appears that Informa’s January corn seeding projections have no bias to either over-or-under-estimate the USDA’s Prospective Plantings (released late March).  On the other hand, it appears that their soybean seedings have a strong tendency to over-estimate Prospective Plantings.

Over the last twelve years, 50% percent of the time, Informa’s December corn seedings estimate was below USDA’s Prospective Plantings estimate.  In the years that Informa’s estimate was too small, the median error was 3.3%.  In the years that Informa’s estimate was too large, the median error was 1.5%.  However, two-thirds of the time, the USDA’s seedings figure came within 2.0% plus-or-minus of Informa’s  estimate.

 

 

Sixty-seven percent of the time, Informa’s January soybean estimate was above USDA’s Prospective Plantings.  In the years that Informa’s estimate was too large, the median error was -3.0%.  However, two-thirds of the time, the USDA’s seedings figure came within 3.5% plus-or-minus of Informa’s estimate.

 

 

The chart below plots the Informa’s estimate of the combined seedings for corn and soybeans (red squares) and USDA’s Prospective Plantings estimates for corn and soybeans.  Informa’s estimates have ranged from 1.1% below USDA (2008) to 2.1% above USDA (2013).   This year’s Informa January corn + soybean estimate is 177.7 Mil Ac.  That is 1.8% ABOVE the USDA’s “Baseline” projection of 174.5 Mil Ac  (which was released in late November).