Pace of Brazil Corn Exports Sufficient to Exceed USDA’s Projection by 0.5-1.0 MMT.

Feb 5, 11:55 am | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   For the period Jan 26-Feb 01, the ship lineup shows that Brazil exported 396,000 MT corn.  That is down 120,000 from the previous week but is 308,000 MT more than what was shipped a year ago.  For comparison, US export inspections were 901,000 MT.  Argentina shipped 723,000 MT for the week.  Brazil’s ship lineup shows that 1.28 MMT are expected to be shipped in Feb.  SESEX’s official cumulative Mar-Jan corn exports are 23.31 MMT vs USDA’s projection of 23.5 MMT.  There is still another 4 weeks left in the local marketing year (Mar’18-Feb’19).  Brazil’s cumulative export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels waiting, and vessels to arrive) are 24.53 MMT, 23.3% below a year ago.  This is tied as the 3rd smallest figure (for this date) in 6 years.  In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for Brazil’s local marketing year (Mar-Feb) exports by 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT.  That’s down 25.6% from last year. Based on the seasonal, the pace of export commitments is sufficient to exceed the USDA’s projection by 0.5-1.0 MMT.

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Brazil’s cumulative corn export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 24.5 MMT.  That is up 245,000 MT from the previous week but it is 23.3% less than a year ago (see chart below).

 

 

This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 1.19 MMT (see chart below), down from last week’s 1.38 MMT but above last year’s 0.634 MMT.

 

 

The chart below shows that corn export commitments are above the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection of 23.5 MMT.  The unusual delays in Brazil’s corn exports early this year were probably due to the imposition of higher truck freight rates which disrupted logistics and slowed farmer sales.  The sharp fluctuations in the Real may also have influenced the timing of farmers’ sales.

 

 

The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb).  The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data.  The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports.  The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports.  January’s SECEX exports were 4.02 MMT vs shipments of 3.08 MMT. For the period Mar-Jan, cumulative SECEX exports are 23.31 MMT vs shipments of 23.29 MMT.  For February, the lineup indicates that shipments will be 1.25 MMT.  There were no vessels scheduled to ship in March.  Late in the season, SESEX’s exports are often larger than the shipments reported by cargo services.

 

 

As of Feb 04, ship waiting times at the three public sheds at Paranagua was estimated to be 6 days (see red line read off right axis in the chart below).  That’s up 2 days from a week ago but below last year’s 9-day waiting time (see black line).