Pace of Brazil Corn Exports Sufficient to Meet (or Exceed) USDA’s Projection of 23.5 MMT.

Jan 29, 7:28 am | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   For the period Jan 19-Jan 25, the ship lineup shows that Brazil exported 468,000 MT corn.  That is down 543,000 from the previous week and 168,000 MT less than what was shipped a year ago.  For comparison, US export inspections were 893,000 MT.  Brazil’s ship lineup shows that 3.28 MMT are expected to be shipped in Jan.  SESEX’s official cumulative Mar-Mid Jan corn exports are 22.65 MMT vs USDA’s projection of 23.5 MMT.  There is still another 5 weeks left in the local marketing year (Mar’18-Feb’19).  Brazil’s cumulative export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels waiting, and vessels to arrive) are 24.0 MMT, 23.6% below a year ago.  This is tied as the 4th smallest figure (for this date) in 6 years.  In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for Brazil’s local marketing year (Mar-Feb) exports by 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT.  That’s down 25.6% from last year. Based on the seasonal, the pace of export commitments is sufficient to meet or slightly exceed the USDA’s projection of 23.5 MMT.

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Brazil’s cumulative corn export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 24.3 MMT.  That is up 284,000 MT from the previous week but it is 23.6% less than a year ago (see chart below).

 

 

This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 1.38 MMT (see chart below), down from last week’s 1.64 MMT but above last year’s 0.688 MMT.

 

 

The chart below shows that corn export commitments are in line with the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection of 23.5 MMT.  The unusual delays in Brazil’s corn exports early this year were probably due to the imposition of higher truck freight rates which disrupted logistics and slowed farmer sales.  The sharp fluctuations in the Real may also have influenced the timing of farmers’ sales.

 

 

The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb).  The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data.  The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports.  The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports.  December’s SECEX exports were 4.231 MMT vs shipments of 4.058 MMT. For the period Mar-Dec, cumulative SECEX exports are 19.766 MMT vs shipments of 20.205 MMT.  Last year, cumulative SECEX exports as of the end of December were 27.325 MMT (vs final annual exports of 31.6 MMT).  For January, the lineup indicates that shipments will be 3.28 MMT.  There were 721,000 MT scheduled to ship in February.  Late in the season, SESEX’s exports are often larger than the shipments reported by cargo services.

 

 

As of Jan 28, ship waiting times at the three public sheds at Paranagua was estimated to be 4 days (see red line read off right axis in the chart below).  That’s unchanged from a week ago but below last year’s 8-day waiting time (see black line).