Pace of Global Corn Trade Sufficient to Meet (or Exceed) USDA’s Projection For Record of 163 MMT.

Jan 30, 1:44 pm | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   As of the end of January, various official reports and ship lineups shows that the major corn exporting countries have shipped 50.9 MMT.  That’s up 5.63 MMT  (12.3%) from last year’s record.  These 7-Countries (Arg/Brz/S.Afr/EU/Ukr/Rus/US) are projected to capture 92% of world exports this year (vs 93% last year). Pace analysis indicated that shipments to date from the major exporters is slightly more than what is required to, on average, meet the USDA’s projections.  ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Cumulative corn export shipments from 7-Countries (Arg/Brz/S.Afr/EU/Ukr/Rus/US) as of the end of January are estimated to be 50.9 MMT vs last year’s record of 45.23 MMT (see chart below).  That is 34% of the USDA projection for this group of countries in the entire marketing year (Oct’18-Sep’19).  The solid columns are last year’s exports.  The cross-hatched columns (Oct-Jan) are this year’s exports.  The “empty” columns (Feb-Sep) are what this year’s corn exports have to be in the remaining eight months to meet the USDA’s projections.  USDA’s projection for 7-Countries corn exports is 150.4 MMT.  That is a record and 10.5 MMT (7.5%) above last year.



These 7-Countries are projected to capture 92% of world exports this year (vs 93% last year).  USDA’s projection for total global corn exports is 163 MMT.  That is a record and 12.2 MMT (8.1%) above last year.



The chart below shows that corn export commitments are in line with the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection for the 7-Countries of 150.4 MMT.



The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of the 7-Countries corn exports for the international marketing year (Oct-Sep).  The red triangles represent official (or estimates of) monthly exports.  The green squares are last year’s exports.  January’s are estimated to be 11.6 MMT vs last year’s 11.4 MMT. For the period Oct-Jan, cumulative exports are 50.86 MMT vs last year’s 45.2 MMT.  The thick blue line is the 5-year average of each month’s exports as a percent of total annual exports (read off the left axis).