Pace of Global Wheat Trade Sufficient to Meet (or Exceed) USDA’s Projection of 178 MMT

Jan 31, 12:54 pm | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   As of the end of January, various official reports and ship lineups shows that the major wheat exporting countries have shipped 92.4 MMT.  That’s down 2.8 MMT  (2.9%) from last year’s record.  The Big-8 wheat exporters (Arg/Aus/EU/Kzh/Ukr/Rus/Can/US) are projected to capture 89.9% of world exports this year (vs 90.5% last year). Pace analysis indicated that shipments to date from the major exporters is slightly more than what is required  on average, to meet the USDA’s projections.

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Cumulative wheat export shipments from the Big-8 wheat exporters (Arg/Aus/EU/Kzh/Ukr/Rus/Can/US) as of the end of January are estimated to be 92.4 MMT vs last year’s record of 95.2 MMT (see chart below).  That is 61% of the USDA’s “adjusted” projection for this group of countries for the entire marketing year (Jul’18-Jun’19).  USDA’s “adjusted” projection for Big-8 wheat exports is 150.4 MMT.  The un-adjusted projection is 160.5 MMT, down 4.7 MMT (2.9%) from last year’s 165.2 MMT.  The USDA’s wheat trade projections include not only wheat grain, but also flour, bulger, pasta, and other wheat products.  The USDA’s projections must be “adjusted” because trade data for some countries does not include various wheat products.

The solid columns in the chart below are last year’s exports.  The cross-hatched columns (Jul-Jan) are this year’s exports.  The “empty” columns (Feb-Jun) are what this year’s wheat exports have to be in the remaining eight months to meet the USDA’s projections.

 

 

The Big-8 is projected to capture 89.9% of world exports this year (vs 90.5% last year).  USDA’s projection for total global wheat exports is 178.4 MMT (for the international trade year Jul’18-Jun’19).  That is 4.1 MMT (2.25%) below last year’s record.

 

 

The chart below shows that wheat export commitments are slightly above the “average” pace required to meet the USDA’s export projection for the Big-8 of 151.8 MMT (or 160.5 MMT on an un-adjusted basis).

 

 

The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of the Big-8’s wheat exports for the international marketing year (Jul-Jun).  The red triangles represent official (or estimates of) monthly exports.  The green squares are last year’s exports.  January’s exports are estimated to be 11.6 MMT vs last year’s 13.3 MMT.  For the period Jul-Jan, cumulative exports are 92.4 MMT vs last year’s 95.2 MMT.  The thick blue line is the 5-year average of each month’s exports as a percent of total annual exports (read off the left axis).