Record Brazil’s New-Crop Soy Export Commitments, Yet USDA Projects Exports to Drop 10% This Year.

Feb 4, 9:38 am | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   Brazil shipped 817,000 MT of soybeans last week. That’s up from the previous week’s 616,000 MT and it is above a year ago.  According to SESEX official data, Feb-Jan exports were 84.24 MMT.    In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised their projection for Brazil’s exports by 3.0 MMT to 80.85 MMT (on a Feb-Jan marketing year).  To accommodate these higher-than-projected exports, USDA will again have to reduce Brazil’s crush; reduce ending stocks or other domestic use; or increase its estimate of the 2017/18 crop.

New-crop (Feb’19-Jan’20) export commitments were 7.31 MMT, a record for this date.  There were 6.72 MMT scheduled to ship in Feb and 595,000 MT scheduled to ship in Mar. In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised their projection for Brazil’s new-crop exports by 1.0 MMT to 75.60 MMT.

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For the period Jan 26-Feb 01, Brazil exported 817,000 MT of soybeans.  That’s up from the previous week’s 617,000 MT and it is 305,000 MT more than a year ago.  Brazil’s soybean export commitments (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 7.31 MMT (see red line in chart below), 3.13 MMT more than week go.  Commitments are a record for this date and up 10.6% from a year ago.

 

 

There was 7.19 MMT in the lineup waiting or scheduled to arrive.  A year ago, there was 6.42 MMT in the lineup.  Last week there was 4.18 MMT in the lineup.  Based on the ship lineup as of Feb 01, Brazil’s February export shipments will be 6.72 MMT.  That would be above last year’s “shipments” of 5.58 MMT and more than last year’s SECEX’s “official” February exports of 2.86 MMT.  There was 595,000 MMT that was scheduled to ship in March.  

 

 

The chart below shows the seasonal of weekly cumulative export commitments for 2019/20 (red squares) vs last year (green triangles).  Export commitments are just below the middle black line which represents the “average” pace (black line) needed to meet the USDA’s export projection for a record 75.60 MMT.  USDA’s local marketing year for Brazil’s soybean crop begins Feb 1. 

 

 

The chart below shows the seasonal of this year’s Brazil monthly soybean exports (based on the international marketing year of Oct-Sep 2018/19).  Shipments  are the black circles and official SECEX exports are the red triangles.  Also shown (as green squares) are last year’s SECEX exports.  The 5-year average of monthly exports (measured as a percent of annual exports) is depicted by the solid blue line (read off the left axis).

 

 

At this time of year, it is common for official SESEX monthly exports to lag behind shipments reported by cargo services.  However, by the end of the local marketing year (Jan 31, 2020), cumulative shipments and official SESEX exports converge.  For the year just completed, the difference between cumulative SESEX exports and cumulative shipments was 1%.