Soybeans stayed under pressure through Tuesday after breaking through major moving averages at the start of the week. Fundamentally the market is struggling under the large crop and slowing exports, while Brazilian weather forecasts have turned more favorable as planting starts to wind down. Funds were estimated sellers of; 6,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 3,500 soyoil contracts.
With harvest near complete across the Midwest, cash supplies pressures are easing and supporting cash basis up and down the US river system. The chart shows basis at terminals on the IL and MS rivers are now $.30 over the lows that were scored in late September. Basis at processors in the Eastern Cornbelt has also improved, though cash markets across the Midwest are holding well under a year ago.
NOPA will release soybean crush data for October on Wednesday, and ahead of the report the average trade estimate calls for a crush rate near 165 million bushels, or unchanged from a year ago.
The November Crop Report was the last for the year, and the December WASDE is typically uneventful. The next major fundamental update will be in January, which looks to leave the CBOT in a broad range. Jan soybeans back to $9.90 or better offers the next sale.