Soybeans closed lower on Monday on technical selling following disappointing US export data and favorable S American weather forecasts. Funds were estimated sellers of; 9,500 soybean, 4,000 soymeal, and 5,000 soyoil contracts. After the close, the Commitment of Traders report showed that as of last Tuesday, funds had been net long nearly 47,000 contracts in soybeans.
Soybean export inspections were within expectations, but fell to a 4 week low of 77 million bushels. After a strong start to the year, inspections began to disapoint in late October and the export has steadily slipped further behind last year as Brazil has maintained strong late season exports.
NASS reported that the 2017 soybean harvest has now reached 93% complete versus the 5 year average of 95%. MN was the only Cornbelt state that is done with harvest, but most look to wrap the 2017 harvest up in the next 10 days.
Brazilian weather will take increasing importance in the upcoming months, though planting is still underway. Until more is known about the Brazilian crop size, we look for spot soybean futures to hold a broad range of $9.50-10.