Surprising Increase in Brazil Soybean Export Commitments This Week. Final Exports Likely 2-3 MMT Larger Than USDA’s Projection.

Jan 14, 8:22 am | AgResource Plus | Share this:

Summary:   Brazil shipped 278,000 MT of soybeans last week. That’s down from the previous week’s 520,000 MT and it is below a year ago.  According to cargo services data, Brazil’s old-crop export “commitments” were 85.43 MMT.  That is up by a surprisingly large 755,000 MT from the previous week.  We suspect that some of the increase in sales will actually not be shipped until the “new-crop” marketing year starts in February.   In the Dec WASDE, the USDA raised their projection for Brazil’s exports by 3.0 MMT to 80.85 MMT (on a Feb-Jan marketing year).  SESEX’s Feb-Dec cumulative exports are 82.08 MMT and there’s still 1 month left in the marketing year.  Soybean commitments have now accounted for 105.7% of the USDA’s projection vs the 5-year average of 100.7%.  Based on the pace of commitments, USDA could raise its projection for Brazil’s exports by another 2-3 MMT.  To do so the USDA would again have to reduce Brazil’s crush; reduce ending stocks or other domestic use;  or increase its estimate of the 2017/18 crop.

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For the period Jan 05-Jan 11, Brazil exported 278,000 MT of soybeans.  That’s down from the previous week’s 520,000 MT and it is 135,000 MT less than a year ago.  Brazil’s soybean export commitments (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 85.43 MMT (see red line in chart below), 755,000 MT more than week go.  Commitments are a record for this date.

 

 

There was 1.87 MMT in the lineup waiting or scheduled to arrive.  A year ago, there was 1.38 MMT in the lineup.  Last week there was 1.39 MMT in the lineup.  Based on the ship lineup as of Jan 11, Brazil’s January export shipments will be 2.53 MMT.  That would be above last year’s “shipments” of 1.66 MMT and more than last year’s SECEX’s “official” January exports of 1.56 MMT.  There was 535,000 MT that was scheduled to ship in February.  

 

 

The chart below shows the seasonal of weekly cumulative export commitments for 2018/19 (red squares) vs last year (green triangles).  Export commitments are two standard deviations above the middle black line which represents the “average” pace (black line) needed to meet the USDA’s export projection for a record 80.85 MMT.  USDA’s local marketing year for Brazil’s soybean crop begins Feb 1. Commitments have now accounted for 105.7% of USDA’s projection vs the 5-year average of 100.7%.

 

 

The chart below shows the seasonal of this year’s Brazil monthly soybean exports (based on the local marketing year of Feb-Jan 2018/19).  Shipments  are the black circles and official SECEX exports are the red triangles.  Also shown (as green squares) are last year’s SECEX exports.  The 5-year average of monthly exports (measured as a percent of annual exports) is depicted by the solid blue line (read off the left axis).

 

 

For December, official SECEX’s exports were 4.01 MMT vs shipments estimated from lineup data of 2.85 MMT.  For Feb-Dec, SECEX cumulative exports are 82.08 MMT whereas shipments estimated from ship lineups is 82.9.  The 0.8 MMT difference between Feb-Dec cumulative estimated shipments and official SECEX exports is typical for this time of year (and the gap has been narrowing).