Chart of the Day: U.S. 4-week observation/forecast HDD anomalies
Discussion: The outlook is adjusted less cold for next week and colder Feb. 22-28 although eastern cold is limited. Colder than normal national HDD anomalies remains into mid-March weakening gradually.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 18-22, 2019
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 23-27, 2019
Discussion: Theme of the forecast is resistance of cold shifting into the East. The Southeast warmth expands slightly north into the extended-range. Meanwhile the deepening western snow maintains a very cold regime into late February.
Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 28-Mar. 4, 2019
Discussion: Cold pattern (could be colder) remains anchored in the West while the Southeast is warm.
High Impact Weather Forecast
Discussion: An atmospheric river category_3 storm affects the West U.S. the next 2 days causing 4-6 in. of rain at the coast and 7+ feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada the next 2 days. The next major storm is early next week with heavy rain in the Mid-South and Southeast with potential for heavy snow southern Ohio Valley and possibly the northern Mid-Atlantic States.