Chart of the Day: February 2019 will be colder than February 1989
Discussion: Our understanding of stratospheric warming leading to arctic outbreaks into the U.S. was the subject of much research following the February 1989 cold wave. The stratosphere was very cold for the February 2019 cold outbreak likely to exceed the 1989 benchmark.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 17-21, 2019
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 22-26, 2019
Discussion: The intense cold is stronger and more widespread centered on the West-Central U.S. The cold extends to New England but with less intensity. The Southeast stays warm. The primary change is colder in the Great Plains.
Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 27-Mar. 3, 2019
Discussion: Continued very cold in the Central U.S. Colder changes into Texas while the chill on the West Coast eases.
Southern snow cover advance in the East offered by European Model
Discussion: A swath of snow from Missouri to Virginia into the early weekend with a larger snowstorm for Virginia indicated in 9 days by the ECMWF model.
