Summary: US ethanol production fell 2.2% this past week. Slightly more than expectations. It is estimated that blender demand was up about 1.5%. Ethanol stocks last week shrank about 0.6%. Ethanol producer margins set new lows. The futures-based producer margin dropped to $-0.287/Bu this week. That is the biggest loss since mid-Jul 2013. Blender margins are low but at least are still profitable. The spread between Brazilian and US ethanol prices widen this week but remains well below a year ago. In the Dec WASDE, USDA lowered their projection for corn grind by 50 Mil Bu to 5,600 Mil Bu.
US ethanol production through the week ending last Friday totaled 308 million gallons, down 6 Mil from the previous week. A year ago, production was 320 Mil.
Ethanol stocks last week totaled 961 million gallons, down 6 million from the previous week but up 2% from last year.
When expressed as a percent of use, ethanol stocks/use are about average.
US motor gasoline inventories are up slightly. As of last Friday, stocks totaled 228 million barrels vs 226 Mil last week and were up 1% from last year.
US crude inventories were 442 million barrels vs. 443 million a week ago but were unchanged from last year.
The futures-based ethanol crush margin is displayed above.
The futures-based blenders’ margin is displayed above.
The spread between Brazilian and US ethanol FOB prices widen last week, but is well below a year ago.