Wheat Futures End Firm; World Cash Market Inches Lower

Feb 13, 3:53 pm | Wheat | Share this:

Like other markets, US and world wheat futures await US-Chinese trade progress and a flood of USDA data due in the next two weeks. US markets found support ahead of Thursday’s export sales report, in which US demand should show another modest boost. We also mention winterkill risks will remain elevated as bitterly cold Central US temps linger into the opening days of March.

World cash prices are down another $1-4/MT this evening, and one major talking point has been the steep discounts in new crop EU/Black Sea prices. This isn’t uncommon in years of crop shortfalls. Whether old crop prices fall or new crop prices rally will be determined by spring weather patterns. No major threats exist today – normal precip has been recorded across Europe, Ukraine and Russia since December.   

Positive US-China trade progress will take priority in the weeks ahead. We also view the drop in Black Sea prices as short-lived given further rallies in interior wheat and flour values there. It’s unlikely the Russian farmer ramps up sales, and sourcing supply will get more difficult into early spring.