US wheat futures fell 5-15 cents, with some measure of support being found in Minneapolis. Spot wheat in Europe fell €3.00/MT ($.07/Bu) to a new three-month low.
US export sales totaled just 4.8 Mil Bu, a marketing year low. The drop in demand during the holidays is common. The actual pace of wheat export demand and Jan-Feb won’t be fully known until next Friday’s data release.
World wheat futures are taking guidance from the world cash market, which has fallen noticeably in the last 10 days. Russian fob this evening is offered at $243/MT, down $11/MT from early February. Whether the decline will be lasting will be better determined by Russian interior prices, which will be updated Friday. Our sources maintain that some measure of Russian export rationing is needed.
Algeria is rumored to have booked 600,000 MTs of French wheat at $230-332/MT FOB about $1-3/MT under published prices.
ARC maintains that a lasting break in US/world wheat prices won’t occur until new crop production is determined.
